THE HUMAN DILEMMA

   
                                         

    The problem for the future, as in the past, is the inherent inability of a chaotic combination of cultures to be led, or to recognize the magnitude of upcoming survival challenges. The time of empire building and leading-by-force ended with the dissolution of the British empire, and on a lesser scale, Spanish, French, and  Portuguese empires, and more recently Soviet Union attempts to bring nations under its control. A misadventure in Afghanistan  led to the ultimate fall and breakup of the Soviet Union.
    Benign leadership, as practiced by the United States, occasionally leading to war, is ineffective also. Tribal cultures in particular resent interference with their centuries old way of life. Heavily religious nations run by clerics  are also unhelpful.
    An ambitious attempt at  international management occurred with the formation of the United Nations Assembly after World War II. Within that organization is the UN Economic and Social council, in which the World Bank Group, created at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, is a member.   The United Nations was supposed to solve problems, but so far, weighted be its own bureau racy, has been mainly successful in providing relief from natural disasters and disease abatement. In a large part, the United States has taken the lead in such events, followed eventually by United Nations action. Within its charter, the World Bank Group provides sporadic relief to nations that need a lift or have run aground from corruption and mismanagement.
    A huge problem looms. Since 1960 world population has risen by a full billion on the average about every thirteen years. Ahead of us, in the next twelve or thirteen  years, is an increase of another billion. Who is going to feed, shelter, and provide space for them with  promise of fulfilled lives ahead? The easy part is providing everyone with cell phones (the number of cell phones now exceeds world population.) Nowhere, so far as I can tell, is the grand plan that spells out how to accommodate  the next billion.
     Availability of energy is the least of the problems. But what kind of energy, and how it is managed is all important. Energy based on carbon fuels is harmful if consumed at a rate where natural processes, plant life and oceanic absorption, cannot keep up with the pollution  produced. Oceanic absorption is already limited as the water becomes warmer and more and more acidic, in turn affecting  ocean plant life.
    Fossil fuels, particularly methane, are available in prodigious amounts as technological progress has produced machinery and techniques for extracting it from underground. Moreover, much of the methane may not be fossil fuel after all, but a primeval component of the atmosphere that got dissolved in brines. These deposits are enormous, numerous and widespread
    Water is a huge problem from many aspects. Intensive agriculture depends on underground aquifers for irrigation. These are being depleted at a rapid rate,  Above-ground water is subject to large scale contamination from many sources ranging from industrial and farm waste to human waste. Rivers of heavily populated China and India are heavily contaminated. It begs the question: Where does the water come from for food processing and drug manufacturing. How dependable is assurance that the water is processed to be pure? How vulnerable is the food and pharmaceuticals supply?
     It is frequently stated that the success of capitalism depends on growth. But do you boil it down to mainly population growth and materials accumulation growth? And how do you separate and quantify the two? Economists have failed to make the distinction between growth based on materials advancement and property accumulation, and the basic needs of a growing population.