It should come as no surprise to learn that there are still prophets among us. It seems that humans, believed to be the only species that think about, and shape the future, have always had a fascination with supposed ability to peer reliably into the future.... hundreds, even thousands of years ahead. For that reason Revelations in the bible and Nostradamus ( 1503-1566) both have avid followers, though the content of neither is accurately presented as the vision of a single individual. More likely, especially for Nostradamus, they are a collection of prophesies from different individuals, as we shall reveal still occurs. It seems odd that there is a preponderance of end-of-time scenarios, as well as other events of catastrophic significance. As recently as the year 1999 there were dire prophesies attached to the importance of the turn of the millennium. Strange, considering that year 1 was arbitrarily chosen as the date of birth of Jesus Christ. That was apparently in error since Christ was alive in the time of Herod, who died in 4B.C. Also, there appears to be a year missing, as there was no zero year.... only 1 B.C. and 1 A.D. Sir Isaac Newton in 1704 concluded, based on his study of The Book of Daniel, that the Apocalypse could occur no sooner than 2060 (yikes!). In 2011 American Christian radio broadcaster Harold Camping forecast the arrival of Rapture on May 21. It didn’t happen, and the date was subsequently revised to October 21, when to the disappointment of many, it didn’t happen again. The run out of the Mayan calendar in 2012 holds serious portent about the end-of-times for some people. To a degree these beliefs persist because hucksters find it an easy way to get people to part with their money. For others it is fascination, or simply entertainment.
Obviously, in the industrial world prophesies won’t do for serious planning. We are more acquainted with prediction than prophesy. While prophesy might emerge from observation and contemplation, prediction is generally built on the collection, organization, analysis and interpretation of data. Underpinned by mathematics, the arts and sciences of systems analysis, statistical analysis, mathematical statistics and probability theory lead to conclusions and convictions that things will definitely occur in a certain way. Analyses would for instance convince Apple’s CEO to tool up with high confidence to produce x million I-phones instead of a few hundred thousand, and in fact would have guided the decision whether to produce them at all. Predictive work now occupies large positions in business, financial and scientific communities. In many instances the information is still formative, as in the cases of evidence of climate change and constantly changing threats. That Earth’s climate is warming as a result of human activity is already quite definitive, though skeptics abound. Statistical analysis, systems analysis and information gathering techniques are manifold. Oddly enough, a definition of consequences still lies somewhat in the territory of prophecy.
Predictions have high value. Something can be done about them, or suffer the consequences. When meteorologists study a budding hurricane far out at sea, they can predict, within a range of probabilities, where it will make landfall. That would ordinarily trigger the normal defensive measures that people take, individually and by government agencies. On the other hand, an opinion that Earth will experience a collision with a celestial object during Century 21 would be nothing more than that. However, should astronomers detect an asteroid and determine through analysis that there is a 50% probability of colliding with Earth in December of 2069, it would be an actionable prediction and massive efforts would likely be undertaken to intercept and either alter its path or break it up.
Prophets are still among us. Human nature being what it is, it seems natural for humans who have accumulated a bank of knowledge to imagine the future. Moore’s law is an example, a forecast by Intel co-founder George E. Moore that the number of transistors that can be placed on a circuit board will double every two years. It turned out to be what some would consider prophetic but for realists it was simple the case of a person close to the industry showing an early recognition of a trend. It is generally recognized that trends have limited lifetimes.
It was my good fortune to come across an opportunity to examine prophesies by an assortment of distinguished Americans at the 50 year mark of an elected 100 year time scale. In July of 1963 a time capsule was sealed and buried in ceremonies commemorating the fifth anniversary of the dedication of the General Dynamics Astronautics Division on Kearny Mesa in San Diego, California. It was to be unsealed in July of 2063. The site selected for burial of the capsule was perhaps too optimistic about the future of the division, since before the end of the century the Astronautics Division was sold to Lockheed Martin and the operations were subsequently shifted to Denver. What with the rapid building expansion in San Diego, the 300 acre Astronautics site was turned into an assortment of commercial and residential installations. The time capsule was dug up. Its current resting place is at Gillespie Field in El Cajon, California.
The main content of the time capsule is a book of prophesies.1 J.R. Dempsey, President of Astronautics, sought the opinions of an array of distinguished Americans regarding their thoughts and dreams on what man will be doing a hundred years hence. To ease the task, he provided each with a list of questions they might address: What kind of space vehicle do you think man will be using? How far out in space do you think we will have moved? What will the ballistic missile be used for? What natural resources will we be taxing in outer space? What everyday activities will have been changed because of our efforts in space? What commercial ventures will have derived from space? and, Looking back from 2063, what will be the dominant achievement of the past 100 years?
There were twenty-eight respondents, of which three chose to remain anonymous, plus an entry from Dempsey for a total of twenty-nine that were bound into a book. Most did not adhere strictly to answering the questions, but tended instead to ramble. There was no apparent intent to keep the contents of the capsule secret, as a limited edition of 201 copies was printed for distribution to participating individuals and selected administrative personnel. I have no recollection of how I came into possession of copy 201.
A few who responded (Governor Edmund Brown, President Lyndon B. Johnson, Congressman James Utt, Gerald P. Kuiper ) declined to answer the questions. Astronomer Gerald Kuiper pointed out that if chances for an accurate prediction ten years ahead are less than 0.5, the chances for making an accurate prediction 100 years out are reduced to 0.001. In contrast, University of California Professor Harold C. Urey submitted a thirteen page dissertation on trends in science and technology and their influences on human intelligence and progress, possibly constituting the entire content of one of his lectures at the University. It stands to reason too, that the contributions were made by a collection of humans whose thoughts were largely influenced by what they had personally observed was at that time occurring around the globe. Scientific and technological advancements that called for reliance on quantum mechanics instead of Newtonian probably had never entered their minds, yet today knowledge of quantum mechanics is essential in certain areas of engineering.
A common concern ran through much of the writing..... a concern that the difficulty of nations getting along, due to prejudice and ideological division, could stymie human progress. The One-World idea as a necessary development appears several times. There is now doubt that space cooperation among nations would have much of an effect on international relations. The cooperative effort among 16 nations comprising the United States, Canada, Russia, Japan and 12 European countries to build the International Space Station (ISS) seems to have borne that out. Indeed, some respondents were of the opinion that space ventures should remain competitive, arguing that progress is always more rapid in that atmosphere. The makeup of the ISS participants reveals that China and India, capable of undertaking space ventures on their own, are not represented. China especially has the capability and intent to proceed independently on various space undertakings.
Opinions about space colonization ranged from outposts on the moon and on Mars to 10,000 people on the moon, 100,000 people on Mars, and outposts at or near all the outer planets. At the fifty year mark there is not much evidence of planned effort beyond establishment of scientific outposts on the moon and Mars. As in all past explorations and conquests, the goal is always a handsome return on investment in the form of property, material goods, and on a lesser scale, services. The British East India company and the Jamestown Settlement are examples of past such ventures that were funded by venture capitalists. There are countless present day terrestrial enterprises, many of which are based on ever growing need for natural resources to support burgeoning populations. Examples are petroleum companies’ exploitation of former members of the Soviet Union for their oil and China’s inroads into Africa for the same purpose as well as a future food source. As yet, the case for anything more than outposts for scientific observations on the moon and Mars has not been made. Easing Earth’s population density is borderline silly. Today babies are being born at a rate that corresponds to the idling putt putt putt of a Harley motorcycle engine. The rate of dying is much lower since medical treatment is improving, resulting in marked life extension. That accounts for forecasts that an additional two billion people will be occupying Earth by mid-century.You cannot launch that many people into space.The notion that the human race could be saved from extinction by going into space is thus far in the realm of science fiction. Humans are pretty inventive. Some on Earth will always survive.
There were inputs from former astronauts John Glenn, Scott Carpenter and Wally Schirrar. Somehow, I was not surprised that their thoughts were limited and uninspired. In my view, astronauts are highly skilled at operating complicated and powerful machinery. But with the exception of one or two (“Buzz Aldrin comes to mind), they don’t come across as visionaries. John Glenn and Scott Carpenter were of the opinion that an anti gravity device would be developed by 2063. At the half way mark there is no evidence that anyone takes such a prospect seriously or can define what the benefits would be. As a side issue, rewarding astronauts with positions at the heads of various NASA agencies may be counterproductive, for both vision and drive are vital at those levels for space exploration to thrive.
In 1958 C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography had just begun his measurements of carbon dioxide concentration atop Mauna Loa in Hawaii..... measurements that have shown a rise in concentration every year since then, until levels at this date are the highest they have been for hundreds of millenia. Scientists predict climate change in the direction of global warming with severe consequences, partly as a result of rising ocean levels due to melting of ice. At the time of the submittals to the time capsule there must already have been discussion in scientific circles about this issue. Astronomer Fred Whipple prophesied water levels rising to the point that coastal land around the world is endangered. “The legislative assembly of the world union is meeting to decide how to control melting ice caps.”
A majority was of the opinion that ballistic missiles would be obsolete.... that more deadly and effective weapons would be developed. At the half way mark, the outlook is not too encouraging, as more nations are busying themselves with acquiring intermediate and intercontinental ballistic missile capability. The United States and Russia preserve mutual annihilation capability, though the cold war has been over for twenty-four years.
Congressman Lionel Van Deerlin prophesied that “television telephones may permit instantaneous visual communication between people on opposite sides of the earth.” A bit conservative, as devices like Apple’s Facetime are currently in the news. Van Deerlin also offered the astonishing view that nuclear energy would be used to melt the polar ice caps. We might want to think about that.
Several respondents were of the opinion that ballistic travel, or travel at near orbital velocities would make half hour intercontinental trips routine. At the half way mark there are no signs that this is in anyone’s planning. I and others have written articles supporting feasibility.2 The required transporters are easily within existing technology. Let’s look at a possible scenario: Sir Richard Branson, who put together the British based Virgin Group, is sponsoring a pseudo-space venture originally begun by Burt Rutan at his Mohave Desert company, Scaled Composites. Rocket propulsion will take willing riders at $200,000 per ticket straight up to the edge of space, upon which the craft, containing perhaps a half dozen passengers, will spiral and then parachute back to the ground. This porpoise-like exercise could easily convert to something far more exciting, say a ballistic flight that reaches the edge of space from Edwards Air force Base in California, terminating at New Mexico’s new rocket base. In a way, it would repeat the experiences of Alan Shepard and Gus Grissom during the early manned flights out of Cape Canaveral, but in much more comfortable style than being cocooned in a Mercury capsule and splashdown in the ocean.That would be the beginning of an impressive shift on the transportation scene, and in what amounts to a serendipitous situation, it might occur to Branson that his Virgin Airlines could pioneer intercontinental ballistic flight. Ensuing developments would then likely involve participation and investment by other airlines, with the object of creating a global capability.
In 1962 James Watson and Francis Crick, having described the structure of DNA in 1953, received the Nobel Prize for their findings. There is no evidence whatever that any of the contributors, even Dr. Harold Urey, realized the implications of this discovery.... the eventual mapping of the human genome, growing ability to manipulate gene structure to eliminate inherited diseases, the emergence of nanotechnology in both biological and non-biological fields, advancements in hybridization, growing replacement organs and tissue, and creating designer bacteria, to name a few. Though the benefits of space experiments in medical advancements were mentioned by several, the really big advancements thus far have been made by participation of vast numbers of researchers on the ground, as opposed to a half dozen or fewer astronauts in space.3 One of the great inventors of our time, Craig Venter, first to map the human genome, currently has under construction a huge laboratory within shouting distance of my home. Venter has plans for such developments as a specialized form of bacterium that will produce gasoline from whatever organic material it feeds on. That is one of his answers to the emerging problem of shortage of fossil fuels, which humanity has yet to deal with.
With respect to manned space activities in low Earth orbit, respondents Hugh Dryden and Krafft Ehricke, among others, wrote of multiple space stations and significant manufacturing in space. Relatively easy access from Earth would logically place those developments at orbital altitudes not exceeding three or four hundred miles. At the half way mark, it is not too difficult to foresee the future based on what occurred in the first fifty years. First there were the Russian Mir and the American Skylab Workshop. Then there was the formidable development of the International Space Station (ISS) by 16 participating nations, as described above. China, left out of the consortium, decided to proceed with its own station and at this writing has three astronauts, two men and a woman, visiting its first orbiting space station. Plans for the ISS are for termination of activities in 2020. What then? Will China be the only nation with space stations in orbit? The answer is no. First, there is some space station commercial activity under way which could succeed. Bigelow Aerospace of Las Vegas, Nevada has been involved for several years in development of space station concepts for commercial applications, including tourist destinations. Current plans involve beginning the launching of modular components for station Alpha in 2014 and Bravo in 2016. Success will depend in a large part on the availability of cheap transportation to and from the orbital sites, a development that was widely predicted by respondents to the time capsule, but which as yet has not materialized either in hardware or concept.
With the closure of the ISS, alternative space stations that cost less and are more flexible will be sought.4 It’s high cost and relatively obscure achievements signal that a replacement is not likely to find support. Instead, it is likely that Russia and the United States will each proceed with smaller stations, building on their forerunners Mir and Skylab. One might surmise that the other participating nations on ISS will want to continue their activity in Space. In their cases the logical route is to purchase versions of Chinese, U.S. or Russian stations for their own purposes, and depending on external providers for transportation and servicing. This is not unlike the operation of terrestrial hotels that depend on external transportation to bring them occupants and contract with outside firms to keep things running and shipshape.
There has always been a fascination with what is out there in the universe, no less so with contributions to the time capsule by prominent personalities like Dr. Brainard Holmes of NASA, Former Congressman George Miller, Chair of the Science Committee, Dr. William H. Pickering, President, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics all predicting that travel at relativistic velocities will be commonplace by 2063. That of course means interstellar travel. Travel at the speed of light, or anywhere near it, makes no sense at all within the confines of our solar system. The most optimistic of prophesy for 2063 by former AIAA president William Pickering is that travel by humans is already underway to nearby star systems to explore other planets.
Interstellar travel isn’t going to occur that soon, but many interesting things are happening. Star ship concepts keep appearing on the scene. A serious study, titled “Daedelus” was performed by members of the British Interplanetary Society (BIS) in the 1970’s. The proposed project was a fusion powered unmanned spaceship that would travel to Barnard’s Star, about ten light years distant. Other studies by members of BIS continue. In the United States the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) recently awarded a contract to study what is titled “The 100 Year Star ship.” The study is in partnership with NASA Ames Research Center and has the objective of defining the next generation technologies that would be needed for extended manned space travel. It is unclear why such a study would originate within a defense research establishment unless there is expectation that some military benefit would accrue. But interstellar fans are cheered by the development.
Construction of extremely powerful astronomical observation devices, both orbital and terrestrial, as well as advanced analytical methods, has opened a window to reveal a universe incredibly more vast and complex than previously believed. These studies have already confirmed that planets like Earth are abundant, numbering perhaps in the hundreds of millions. As observation instruments improve, more will be learned. Perhaps direct observation of the planets will be possible. NASA’s Kepler space telescope has already detected 2300 exoplanet candidates. The large binocular telescope atop Arizona’s Mount Graham, nearing completion but already in operation, will have ten times the resolution of the Hubble space telescope when fully operational. The European Union sponsored Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) atop a mountain in Chile, under construction for the next ten years, will be even more powerful. The largest telescope ever built, it will have a mirror measuring 39.3 meters in diameter.
Organizations for the promotion of interstellar exploration exist at many levels. The most prominent among them are The British Interplanetary Society, Tau Zero Foundation, The Royal Astronomical Society, The American Astronautical Society, The Planetary Society and The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
Of course, public interest is constantly stoked by individuals like Carl Sagan (1934-1996), television programs created by NOVA, BBC and others, motion pictures and science fiction novels that bring a sense of reality to possible other worlds, monthly journals and other publications by space societies, and of course news that the United states is sponsoring the study of a 100 year Star ship.
What can be concluded regarding the prophesies of the twenty-seven men and one woman (Mrs. Robert H. Goddard) who participated? One can say that for the most part they were charged with optimism. At the fifty year mark it is clear that advancements have taken place that they would not have dreamed about. They had little notion that communications advancements, data retrieval and storage, the Internet and search engines would revolutionize access to knowledge before fifty years had elapsed. Nor could they know that the new capabilities could be turned to selfish advantage, such as gaming the financial system in ways that can be ruinous to the world economy. It was a time of optimism, however, for a well educated, productive middle class had emerged after World War II. But advancements such as nanotechnology, application of quantum theory, mapping of the human genome and subsequent forays into DNA modification to eliminate heredity diseases, growing replacement organs and tissue, and robotics were still the stuff of science fiction.
Though concerned about ideological and racial division and the brakes they place on progress, they did not foresee that serious reversals can take place if for example persons and corporations manage to concentrate wealth and turn government into an instrument that serves their private and selfish desires. This is visibly occurring in present times, as we witness a re-emergence of an oligarchy that is bent on returning a dynamic nation back to an era best represented by the 1920’s.5 To counter that, organizations like the Brookings Institution and the Great Transition Initiative have appeared to tackle the social and environmental issues of our time. It is difficult to make a case for the existence of more than 400 multibillionaires in the United States as being good for human progress as a whole. In the deregulated and unregulated society they desire, prophets have small reason for optimism.
Governor Brown, President Johnson, J.R. Dempsey and others dwelt briefly on the moral imperative for society to move ahead in abandoning ideological division and assuring freedom and opportunity for all. They did not, however, prophesy that by 2063 great gains had been made.
1. General Dynamics: Prophesies by Distinguished Americans. July, 1963
2. Edward Hujsak: The Case For Ballistic Transportation. Spaceflight 2006
3. Edward Hujsak: Conquering Space - One Man At A Time. Space News op-ed, 26 Mar. 2012 and this site.
4. Edward Hujsak: Obama’s Rocket. Space News op-ed, 24 May 2010 and this site
5. Edward Hujsak, Essay, “How We Got Here And Where We Are Headed.” 2010, This site
