Russia, China, and the United States are developing, or plan to develop heavy lift launch vehicles in the coming years with a low Earth orbit capability in the region of 75 tons. What’s up? At best solar system exploration is likely to involve an occasional launch, perhaps years apart. Something else must be afoot, and it probably has ties to the coming end-of-life status of the International Space Station (ISS). Russia has already indicated that it is departing early to independence. China, having no part in the ISS, already has it’s own station.
The upped launch capability foretells a new era in low Earth operations in the form of smaller, Skylab size work stations, many of them, providing opportunity for research and development, manufacturing, and even tourism on eventually a large scale. Its nature will be such that nations with no launch capability will be able to lease stations, relying on the big three to provide transportation and servicing.
I had the opportunity to tour the mockup Skylab at Mcdonnell-Douglas shortly before the real article was launched. A multi-story configuration built inside a structure that was a Saturn IV
upper stage, it seemed adequately roomy and comfortable enough to house several astronauts.
Perhaps this mockup still exists somewhere.....maybe at the Smithsonian. It could still be a model for future turnkey stations.
Earth orbit occupied by numerous turnkey stations may be the only way for many years to obtain a net positive return on investment, short of finding an asteroid littered with diamonds.
Note: I have previously written op-eds on this subject for Space News.
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