PROMISES TO KEEP

      The small segment of the work force that constitutes the coal industry, which includes miners, coal processors, coal transportation and coal burning power plant operators, estimated to be upwards of 166,000 people, together with the service industries that support them. as well as sympathizers with the coal industry, and investors, are in for a big disappointment.
         Donald Trump cannot come through on his promise to restore the coal industry. A combination of economics and the imperative for global warming abatement spell the end of the industry. Natural gas power plants are replacing coal fired plants as the latter are rapidly being retired. Most coal fired plants were built before 1980 and are approaching end of life, an average of 58 years. Of 66 proposed coal fired power plants proposed in the 2002-2015 time period, 43 were cancelled. Ninety-four plants were shut down in 2015 and forty-one were scheduled for closure in 2016.
Driving forces for conversion to natural gas are reduced construction and operating cost, low cost of natural gas, 25% better thermodynamic efficiency than coal, reduced carbon emissions and near elimination of toxic emissions. Moreover there is now a general awareness that natural gas is available in prodigious amounts, stored in underground fissures and dissolved in hot brine deposits around the globe. An additional factor is  the lowered cost of renewable energy sources. For example, wind energy is getting competitive with building new coal fired plants. Whatever the benefits are of “clean coal,” added cost would rule that out, unless the government engages in massive subsidies to the industry,
All this means means curtains for the coal industry and disappointment and distress for workers who believed a man with a reputation as a con man and arguably provided the critical votes that squeaked him into the White House. The consequences could get severe when jobless workers are left twisting in the wind, forced to face the problem of feeding and sheltering their families. One thing is for sure: not many coal miners will be retrained to operate computers.
       Unemployment insurance doesn’t last long. Beyond that, there are few options for coal industry blue collar workers. Perhaps, as some believe, with the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution we are approaching an era when people are provided with a living stipend, eliminating the specter of possible joblessness.