CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CHALLENGE FOR HUMANS

   
                    


    Chalk up a big one for  NASA and the  Space Exploration Program. The discovery and confirmation that Titan, one of Saturn’s moons, has a high methane component, even lakes of it, is a strong indicator that methane had a high presence in the formation of the rest of the solar system and  probably was heavily involved in Earth’s evolution.  A theory yet to be proven, but it is plausible that methane occurs not only as a component of biomass as represented by coal and oil, but also as a direct deposit from the original, dense primordial soup that enveloped Earth long before life appeared. It also contained carbon dioxide, water vapor, ammonia, elemental hydrogen and nitrogen in massive quantity and other gasses in smaller amounts. 
        
    As yet, there were no oceans. That came later as temperatures moderated, water vapor condensed, and energy from sunlight and lightning spurred the formation of more complex molecules ....some eventually to become self replicating and characterized by the phenomenon we call life. Thus began an incredible and prodigious global biochemical reaction that converted most of the carbon into biomass, thinned and modified the atmosphere to its present content of mostly 80% nitrogen and 20 percent oxygen, and helped to form the oceans.

    If one takes into account the estimated water in the world, about 2 exp.21 pounds, an easy calculation shows that terrestrial pressure of the early gaseous envelope was in the hundreds of atmospheres. As the earth cooled and a crust formed and cooled, fissures and voids appeared, which would have immediately been filled with “soup.”  Further earth movement sealed it in for the ages. That much of it is still there is evident in volcanic eruptions where carbon dioxide content may be as high as 40 %, accompanied by other gasses. A second clue is appearance of methane in places where its presence can’t be explained by biomass processes, since there is no biomass in the vicinity.  For instance, methane appears dissolved in hot brine in high concentrations. Some efforts are already underway for recovery in places where it is not too difficult to gain access. An added benefit is application of the hot brine to geothermal energy extraction. In the late seventies, remembered for the oil crisis during the Carter administration, there appeared an article in the Oil and Gas Journal describing the discovery of an enormous hot brine deposit miles under Texas and Louisiana that is saturated with methane. The author estimated that there is enough methane in that single deposit to serve the nation’s energy needs for the next 2500 years. Quick conclusion: methane is everywhere, in quantities that would serve Earth’s energy needs for thousands of years. That is, if there were not a down side.     
   
    In an upcoming book, UC Berkeley physicist Richard Muller, a confirmed climate change denier for many years, has reversed himself after conducting a detailed study of all the data, assisted by dozens of scientists, funded by a grant from the Koch brothers. He concludes now  that climate change is real, human caused, and there is an urgent need to make corrective changes in the energy generation industry. His immediate recommendation is to convert rapidly from coal to methane to generate  electricity, reducing emissions by about two thirds.  Earth’s natural absorption systems can handle about 50% of current carbon dioxide emissions.  But if a conversion  to methane, along with introduction of other “green” renewables, doesn’t abate the other 50%, climate warming will continue, only at a slower rate.

    Another recently published book by Ozzie Zehmer, also of UC Berkeley, titled “Green Illusions,” does not take issue with the subject of global warming, but dwells instead on the various  methods of generating energy claiming to be renewable, with the object of revealing whether they are beneficial,  have a negative effect, or are simply cosmetic.  It turns out that some, like production of ethanol from corn, are strongly negative (In a recent posting here, titled “Coal Burning Electric Cars,” I also wrote about the dubious benefit of electric cars on which batteries are charged  from coal burning power plants).

    At best, the suggestions made by Richard Muller would buy time, given the rate at which energy consumption is growing globally. The final solutions, restoring Earth’s “breathing” to the situation in which natural absorption processes  maintain an equillibrium, will require innovation on many fronts, including gains in efficiency, conservation, and containing urban sprawl to reduce transportation needs. 

    While nuclear power is looked upon unfavorably by many people, it may be a significant part of the final answer. The United States has more nuclear power plants in operation than any other nation.... around one hundred twenty. They generate nearly 20 % of our electrical energy. France generates 80 % of its electrical energy in nuclear plants; the remainder mostly “green.”
Still, the existing  plants, while technologically formidable achievements, must be considered first generation technology. Most are over forty years old. Some are operating beyond their scheduled lifetimes.The last one to be built in the United States came on-line in the nineties.  Historically, though, there have been no fatalities in the United States. Disasters at Chernobyl and more recently in Japan after the tsunami have been attributed to operator error and aging equipment.  Industry is capable of producing a next generation power plant.... more efficient and safer, by employing advanced designs, using materials not previously available in the original builds, and welding advancements. Operator error can be largely eliminated with a high level of automation, including the quadruple redundancey that is commonly employed in spacecraft design.  Away down the road there is the possibility of continuous fusion power if the technology can be mastered. Perhaps sooner if pulse fusion is discovered to be easier to achieve.   

    So interesting.... discover something useful on a moon a gazillion miles away and realize that the same events that got it there also placed it everywhere you walk, deep underground but nevertheless accessible. Of itself, it might not solve our emerging, serious problem, but it could go a long ways as a stopgap while permanent solutions are found and implemented. This also reaffirms that space exploration is incredibly important. What it can teach us can be quite surprising, and could return every penny ever spent.